Colombia has sufficient natural gas reserves to meet current domestic consumption through 2018, Claudia Milena Vaca, director of the Naturgas natural gas industry association, told BNamericas.
"Without any new natural gas discovery and if we don't account for the new methane gas discoveries associated with coal, Colombia's current reserves will be able to meet domestic demand through 2018," Milena said.
As a result, Colombia would not need to depend - at least initially - on natural gas that Venezuela is due to begin exporting to its neighbor in 2012. Many industry analysts have questioned Venezuela's ability to meet its promise to export gas as it faces a large natural gas deficit.
A pipeline between the two countries was opened in January and Colombia began initial gas exports to Venezuela as a goodwill gesture so the favor can be returned and the flow reversed four years from now.
Colombia's state oil company Ecopetrol is expecting to receive up to 4.2Mm3/d when exports begin.
"It's not that Colombia will need the natural gas in 2012, but that's when the contract begins," Milena said. Officials from both Ecopetrol and Colombia's government have said that they expect Venezuela to honor its commitment.
Milena, meanwhile, is optimistic Colombia will make significant natural gas discoveries before the supply situation begins to tighten.
"I think there'll be a large discovery, but that could be wishful thinking," Milena said. "But over 500 wells are going to be drilled between 2008 and 2020 and a lot of those will be offshore in the Caribbean, where there is great potential for natural gas."
Colombia does not yet need to make a decision on whether to advance with additional natural gas import projects. Some industry leaders have speculated Colombia may have to begin constructing LNG import facilities to meet a predicted shortfall.
"The country first has to see what kind of results we get from exploration underway so it would be premature to talk about increased imports," Milena said, adding a decision would not need to be made until at least 2014.
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